Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany.
Identifieur interne : 000629 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000628; suivant : 000630Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany.
Auteurs : Matthias Greiner [Allemagne] ; Christine Müller-Graf ; Petra Hiller ; Christina Schrader ; Andrea Gervelmeyer ; Lüppo Ellerbroek ; Bernd AppelSource :
- Berliner und Munchener tierarztliche Wochenschrift [ 0005-9366 ]
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Allemagne, Animaux, Contamination des aliments, Flambées de maladies (), Flambées de maladies (médecine vétérinaire), Grippe chez les oiseaux (transmission), Grippe humaine (étiologie), Humains, Manipulation des aliments (), Modèles théoriques, Méthode de Monte-Carlo, Processus stochastiques, Sous-type H5N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sécurité des produits de consommation, Viande (virologie), Volaille, Zoonoses, Évaluation des risques.
- MESH :
- médecine vétérinaire : Flambées de maladies.
- virologie : Viande.
- étiologie : Grippe chez les oiseaux, Grippe humaine.
- Allemagne, Animaux, Contamination des aliments, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Manipulation des aliments, Modèles théoriques, Méthode de Monte-Carlo, Processus stochastiques, Sous-type H5N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sécurité des produits de consommation, Volaille, Zoonoses, Évaluation des risques.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Allemagne.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Consumer Product Safety, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Disease Outbreaks (veterinary), Food Contamination, Food Handling (methods), Germany, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype, Influenza in Birds (transmission), Influenza, Human (etiology), Meat (virology), Models, Theoretical, Monte Carlo Method, Poultry, Risk Assessment, Stochastic Processes, Zoonoses.
- MESH :
- geographic : Germany.
- etiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Food Handling.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks.
- transmission : Influenza in Birds.
- veterinary : Disease Outbreaks.
- virology : Meat.
- Animals, Consumer Product Safety, Food Contamination, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype, Models, Theoretical, Monte Carlo Method, Poultry, Risk Assessment, Stochastic Processes, Zoonoses.
Abstract
According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model. The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply. The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.
PubMed: 17416131
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model. The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply. The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">17416131</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2007</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>07</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2009</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>03</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0005-9366</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>120</Volume><Issue>3-4</Issue><PubDate><MedlineDate>2007 Mar-Apr</MedlineDate></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Berliner und Munchener tierarztliche Wochenschrift</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Berl. Munch. Tierarztl. Wochenschr.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>98-107</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model. The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply. The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Greiner</LastName><ForeName>Matthias</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung (BfR, Federal Institute for Risk Assessment), Berlin, Germany. matthias.greiner@bfr.bund.de</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Müller-Graf</LastName><ForeName>Christine</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hiller</LastName><ForeName>Petra</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Schrader</LastName><ForeName>Christina</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gervelmeyer</LastName><ForeName>Andrea</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ellerbroek</LastName><ForeName>Lüppo</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Appel</LastName><ForeName>Bernd</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Berl Munch Tierarztl Wochenschr</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0003163</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0005-9366</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003257" MajorTopicYN="N">Consumer Product Safety</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName 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PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2007</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>10</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2007</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2007</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>10</Day><Hour>9</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17416131</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li></country><region><li>Berlin</li></region><settlement><li>Berlin</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Appel, Bernd" sort="Appel, Bernd" uniqKey="Appel B" first="Bernd" last="Appel">Bernd Appel</name><name sortKey="Ellerbroek, Luppo" sort="Ellerbroek, Luppo" uniqKey="Ellerbroek L" first="Lüppo" last="Ellerbroek">Lüppo Ellerbroek</name><name sortKey="Gervelmeyer, Andrea" sort="Gervelmeyer, Andrea" uniqKey="Gervelmeyer A" first="Andrea" last="Gervelmeyer">Andrea Gervelmeyer</name><name sortKey="Hiller, Petra" sort="Hiller, Petra" uniqKey="Hiller P" first="Petra" last="Hiller">Petra Hiller</name><name sortKey="Muller Graf, Christine" sort="Muller Graf, Christine" uniqKey="Muller Graf C" first="Christine" last="Müller-Graf">Christine Müller-Graf</name><name sortKey="Schrader, Christina" sort="Schrader, Christina" uniqKey="Schrader C" first="Christina" last="Schrader">Christina Schrader</name></noCountry><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Greiner, Matthias" sort="Greiner, Matthias" uniqKey="Greiner M" first="Matthias" last="Greiner">Matthias Greiner</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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